The Observation Post
Thursday, August 24, 2006
President Bush pessimistic about Iraq?

Bush Shows Pessimism on Iraq

For three years, the president tried to reassure Americans that more progress was being made in Iraq than they realized. But with Iraq either in civil war or on the brink of it, Bush dropped the unseen-progress argument in favor of the contention that things could be even worse.

Obviously I am limited to what I can say on this subject, being a professional Marine officer, but this article screams out for some commentary. 3 and a half years ago, I believed whole-heartedly that we were doing the right thing in ousting Saddam Hussein, and I still do.

Hindsight being 20/20, now I would say that we should not have made the alleged weapons of mass destruction the linchpin of our case against Saddam, but I never believed that was the administration's primary motivation. I still believe that the policy-makers latched on to that issue because it was the easiest to sell to the American public. After all, I believe most of us thought that the hardest thing about the war would not be fighting it, but getting the American public to support it.

Most of the Marines I talked to in February and March 2003 expected a somewhat difficult fight followed by a quick and easy occupation. I differed from many of them in that I thought the occupation would be longer, but I never thought a full-fledged insurgency would break out. There was a general sense of optimism, that we would steamroll the Iraqis just like we did in 1991. However, when I was trained to be a platoon commander, I was told to plan not only for what I believed to be the enemy's most likely course of action, but also his most dangerous course of action. I believe we either planned for the wrong most dangerous course of action, or ignored it outright. Once the war became an all-out insurgency, it should have been obvious to everyone that it would continue for several years. Counter-insurgency campaigns are never short or easy, and anyone who expected this to be over by now was misguided at best and delusional at worst.

One of the most frustrating things to me has been the talk of immediate withdrawal. If we withdraw and the Iraqi government fails or is taken over by anti-American fundamentalists, then our enemies will all know that they can beat us by using insurgent tactics and outlasting us. Whether you wanted this war or not, it has happened and we must deal with it and continue to fight until we have achieved our goal of a completely self-sustaining Iraqi government.

I will tell you that in just the short time I have been here, this Iraqi Army battalion has made significant progress in securing the nearby villages. Their performance leaves plenty to be desired, but the civilians who live near the COP have said on numerous occasions that they feel much safer around their homes than they did just 4-5 months ago. Progress is being made here, and it will continue to be as long as we are allowed to do our jobs.

 
Comments:
Thank you for this. The Dems are hoping that security/soccer moms and other fence-sitters will go Democratic out of frustration with the Republicans.

Although frustrated, we do see that the Dem's handling of this would be even worse. It doesn't take a whole lot to see that they have no constructive alternatives, and when they do articulate something, it's basically the same thing we're doing now.

The public, despite polls, do continue to support fighting in Iraq, and want to see it through to the end. Believe me, security moms, who tipped the tide in 2004, are in no way looking at the Dems as their knight in shining armor.
 
The sad truth is that this Administration assumed a best-case scenario and did not plan to avoid failure. The evidence is simply overwhelming. The troops are largely not at fault for the messy state of Iraq, but they have been stunningly poorly led by their national leadership. If anything, the current administration has squandered much of the political will to keep the war effort going. This mess is their own fault. Few in the US are calling for immediate withdrawal, though that might become a more popular option if matters do not continue to improve. I hope the turnover to the Iraqi Army of substantial aspects of the security mission continues to work. For the Iraqis, there is no "exit strategy." They have to make this work themselves.
Sadly, you're right--the Democrats have yet to develop a coherent strategy in response to Republican rhetoric that obscures almost criminal incompetence. I served in 1st Armored Division in the last Gulf War. Thank you for your honesty, as one of the earlier comments put it.
 
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Observations of a Marine infantry officer and participant in the Global War On Terror.

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I'm a Captain in the Marine Corps, and an infantry officer by trade. Currently, I am assigned to 2d Air Naval Gunfire Liaison Company (ANGLICO) as a Joint Terminal Attack Controller (JTAC), responsible for requesting and directing close air support in support of friendly ground units. I have deployed to the Central Command AOR on four separate occasions, including two tours in Iraq and a tour in Afghanistan. I will be returning to Iraq for another go-round in the fall of 2007.

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